Arbitrage Betting: A Practical, Advanced Guide to Low-Risk Edges
Arbitrage betting locks in a small edge by placing offsetting bets at different prices across books or markets. Success depends on strict rule matching, fast execution, and disciplined stake sizing. Use the guidance below to fit arbs into a pro bankroll plan, size stakes correctly, and manage real-world operational risks.
How arbitrage fits a pro bankroll plan
- Arb returns are smooth but capped (limited by price gaps and stake limits).
- Treat as low-volatility sleeve within your overall betting portfolio (e.g., 20–40% of capital if your goal is stable compounding).
- Reinvest profits into higher-edge opportunities (sharp prop models, exchanges) once your operational discipline is solid.
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Quick reference: two-way arb calculator
Copy for your sheet:
- Input:
a(odds side 1),b(odds side 2),T(total stake) - Check:
margin = 1/a + 1/b→ must be< 1 - Profit %:
= 1/margin - 1 - Stake A:
= T * b / (a + b) - Stake B:
= T * a / (a + b) - Expected profit (currency):
= T * (1/margin - 1)
FAQs
Is arbitrage risk-free?
Mathematically, yes—if both bets settle as placed. In practice, operational risks (limits, voids, rule mismatches, delays) can create losses. Your process management is the edge.
How big are realistic profits?
Edges are often 0.3–2.0% per arb. Scale comes from turnover and speed, not from oversizing. Respect limits and avoid typos.
Should I use an exchange?
Exchanges add liquidity and hedging, but commission reduces the edge. Always compute using net odds.
Can I mix arbing with value betting?
Yes—treat arb bankroll separately and keep clean records. Some pros use arb flows to flatten variance and cover operational costs.
Cross-Market & Rule-Match Arbs (must-read)
- OT / Extra Time: Does the line include overtime? (NBA ML yes; some soccer 1X2 no.)
- Push rules: DNB/Asian Handicap push refunds vs. 1X2 losses.
- Player props: DNP/void policies, stat provider differences.
- Tennis retirements: “Match started” vs “1 set completed” vs “Full match.”
If any rule differs, it’s not an arb—price the risk or skip.
Commission, FX & Net Odds
- Your edge is after fees.
- Exchange commission: Net decimal odds = price × (1 − commission).
Execution Checklist
- Compute profit% and set min threshold (e.g., ≥0.4%).
- Choose T (0.5–1.5% of arb bankroll).
- Place more stable leg first, volatile leg second.
- If second leg slips below threshold → scratch (accept tiny loss).
- Screenshot both tickets; log immediately.
Operational Risk Controls
- Per-arb cap: ≤1.5% of arb bankroll.
- Daily stop: If net locked profit < plan due to slippage, stop.
- Outlier filter: Avoid prices >30 bps off consensus (palpable error/void risk).
- Balance discipline: Keep funds spread to avoid mid-session transfers.
- No chase rule: If a leg moves, don’t force a “new arb” around it.
Middling vs Arbitrage (don’t confuse them)
- Arb: Lock profit now (all outcomes covered).
- Middle: Aim for a bigger win if result lands in the middle, but you accept exposure and variance if it doesn’t.
Where Arbs Hide (legally & ethically)
- Book vs Exchange (after commission).
- Cross-market: 1X2 vs DNB/AH; totals vs alt totals.
- Live: brief dislocations after injuries/cards/timeouts.
- Smaller leagues/props: edges appear, but limits are low—size down.
Quick FAQ Add-Ons
How small is “too small” an edge?
Below ~0.3% after fees is rarely worth the operational risk unless your process is fully automated.
Can I round stakes?
Yes—round subtly to avoid flags; keep payout parity close.
Is it okay to leave small exposure?
If you must scratch, accept a tiny controlled loss. Forcing coverage creates bigger errors.
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Responsible Play
Only bet where legal and with funds you can afford to lock up. If betting is causing stress or harm, take a break and seek help. Age limits and local laws apply (18+ / 21+ by region).