Author: ProRakeback Editorial •
Date: Oct 17, 2025
Cash-game rules don’t map cleanly to tournaments. Payouts are top-heavy, re-entries create clustering risk, and daily schedule choices can multiply variance fast. This guide gives you a practical, math-informed system to choose stakes, control downside, and compound edges without punting your roll.
1) Speak the right language: ABI, ROI, σ (volatility)
- ABI (Average Buy-In): weighted average of your tournament entries for the session/period. This is the lever you actually control.
- ROI (in buy-ins): (average net profit per event) / (buy-in). Example: +0.15 = +15%.
- σ (sigma) = standard deviation of returns in buy-ins per event. (Top-heavy MTTs have large σ; small-field/reg-speed formats have smaller σ.)
Track ROI and σ in your database by format/speed/field size. Your ABI should reflect current ROI/σ, not vibes.
2) Kelly-style sizing for tournaments (safe version)
For repeated bets with mean μ and variance σ², an approximate Kelly fraction is:
f* ≈ μ / σ²
Treat one tournament entry as a “bet” with μ = ROI (in BIs) and σ = per-event standard deviation (in BIs).
- Recommended stake per event ≈ fraction of bankroll = ROI / σ²
- Recommended bankroll (in buy-ins) ≈ 1 / f
Example: ROI = 0.20 (20%), σ = 8 BIs → f = 0.20 / 64 = 0.003125 → stake 0.3125% of roll per entry → ~320 BIs for that format.
Reality check: ROI estimates are noisy. Use fractional Kelly:
- Conservative: ¼‑Kelly (4× more BIs than formula)
- Standard: ½‑Kelly (2× more BIs)
- Aggressive: ¾‑Kelly (for crushers with deep samples)
3) ABI bands you can live with
Use ABI instead of hard “game stake” labels. Keep your buy-ins within a band around ABI.
- Small-field / Reg speed (≤500 runners): 150–300 BIs for ABI
- Mid-field (500–1500): 250–500 BIs
- Large-field (1500+): 400–800 BIs
- Turbos/PKO hypers: push toward the upper half of each range
- SNGs (9–45-man): 100–200 BIs (add more for hypers)
Buy-in spread per session:
- Floor ≈ 0.5× ABI
- Ceiling ≈ 2.0–2.5× ABI (true “shots” beyond this come from a separate shot-roll; see §5)
4) Re-entry & correlation controls
Re-entries cluster risk into the same event (same field, same mistakes, same tilt triggers). Cap it.
- Max bullets per event: 1–2 for reg speed; 2–3 for turbos/PKOs; hard stop when hit.
- Daily exposure cap: total buy-ins ≤ 3–5% of roll (format-dependent).
- Event correlation cap: if you’re multi‑tabling the same field structure, keep total exposure sensible; treat it like one “super‑bet” for risk purposes.
5) Shot‑taking without torching the roll
Create a Shot Roll (10–20% of bankroll) to test higher ABI.
Move‑up criteria (pick two):
- Last 2,000–5,000 MTTs/SNGs with positive EV line (or clean ROI) in current pool
- CLV/proxy tells you you’re beating the pool (softer fields, edges in PKO/ICM)
- Study cadence is real (solver work/reviews weekly)
Risk rails:
- Shot stop‑loss: −10% of shot roll or −20 BIs at the new ABI (whichever first)
- Win lock: after +20 to +40 BIs at new ABI, lock half the gains into core roll
- Auto‑downshift: if you give back the win lock, drop back instantly
6) Late reg, format mix, and hidden variance
- Late reg deep: increases finish variance; good hourly for crushers, bad for bankroll if you’re near your floor.
- PKO: early bounties smooth cash flow, but final tables are still spiky; don’t under‑estimate σ.
- Satellites: great ROI for specialists; treat tickets as locked capital until converted or sold.
- Live vs online: live fields have lower σ and lower volume; keep separate rolls or separate accounting.
7) Series & Sunday planning (festival proof)
For a festival (live or online), ring‑fence a Series Bankroll inside your roll.
- Series BR size: 20–50 ABI for the series schedule, depending on re‑entry rules and speed.
- Entry mix: 60–70% reg speed, 20–30% turbos/PKO, 0–10% high‑variance shots.
- Daily plan: max buy‑ins per day (and per flagship event), predefined bullets, curated late reg windows.
Post‑series rule: If down ≥ 20% of Series BR, reduce ABI by 10–20% for 1–2 weeks and rebuild confidence.
8) Cash‑out & life‑roll policy
Profit spikes are part of tournaments; don’t yo‑yo your stakes with withdrawals.
- High‑water mark rule: cash out 20–30% of profits above last HWM.
- Life cushion: maintain X months expenses separate from BR.
- No BR raids: don’t fund life expenses from the roll during downswings; that’s how risk of ruin creeps in.
9) Minimal daily checklist (do this, print it)
- Pre‑session: Today’s ABI band? Max bullets/event? Max spend/day?
- During: Stop after max bullets; record bust reasons; no unplanned “one last” reg.
- Post: Log ABI, entries, ITM, top‑heaviness of fields played, key review hands.
- Weekly: Update ROI & σ by format; adjust ABI band if variance is biting.
10) Quick math crib (keep handy)
Kelly approx: f ≈ ROI / σ² (ROI and σ measured in buy-ins).
- With ROI = 10%, σ = 8 → f ≈ 0.125% → ~800 BIs (½‑Kelly ≈ 1600).
- With ROI = 20%, σ = 8 → f ≈ 0.3125% → ~320 BIs (½‑Kelly ≈ 640).
- With ROI = 15%, σ = 6 → f ≈ 0.4167% → ~240 BIs (½‑Kelly ≈ 480).
Prefer fractional Kelly unless you have large, stable samples. Increase BIs for larger fields, turbos/hypers, PKO volatility, heavy re-entry.
11) Common leaks that bankrupt good players
- Unlimited re‑entry mindset (“one more bullet”)
- Late‑reg addiction without bankroll context
- ABI creep from a few score screenshots
- No hard daily spend caps
- Withdrawing big after a bink then playing bigger with a smaller roll
12) TL;DR rules you can adopt today
- Set an ABI band; no entry above 2.5× ABI unless from shot roll
- Bullets cap: write a hard number per event before you start
- Daily cap: max spend ≤ 3–5% of roll
- Downshift fast: after −20–40 BIs at ABI, reduce ABI by 10–20%
- Separate life money: maintain a cushion; don’t raid the roll
Educational content. Not financial advice. Play responsibly.