Author: ProRakeback Team • Focus: Capital allocation under uncertainty
Serious Betting = Capital Allocation
Serious sports betting isn’t about “picks.” It’s about sizing bets, allocating across markets, controlling downside, and compounding edges while protecting capital.
1) Define Your Bankroll Like a Pro
Bankroll = money ring-fenced for betting. Split into buckets:
- Core BR (70–90%) — Long-term capital to defend. Use conservative sizing; avoid correlated blowups.
- Risk Capital (10–25%) — Higher-variance plays: small markets, niche props, experimental models.
- Promo/Float (0–10%) — Turnover for bonuses, free bets, hedges, exchange/liquidity fees.
Why: push edges in smaller markets without jeopardizing the core.
2) Unit Sizing That Survives Variance
Use % of bankroll per bet as your unit. Edges are smaller than you think; variance is larger than you remember.
- Conservative: 0.5%–1.0%
- Standard: 1.0%–2.0%
- Aggressive (pros only): 2.5%–4.0% (expect deep drawdowns)
Go smaller with long shots, high correlation (same game/market), thin limits, stale prices, or model uncertainty.
3) Kelly Criterion — Use Fractional, Not Full
Kelly maximizes long-run growth if your edge and probability are exact. They rarely are.
Kelly fraction (decimal odds O, win prob p): f* = ((O - 1) × p − (1 − p)) / (O − 1)
Example: O = 2.10, p = 0.52 → f* ≈ 8.36% of BR. Use ½ Kelly (4.18%) or ¼ Kelly (2.09%). Shrink more as uncertainty rises.
- Low confidence → ¼ Kelly or less
- Parlays/longshots → cap absolute stake (e.g., ≤1% BR)
- Correlated exposure → treat as a single bet for sizing
4) Portfolio Allocation Across Sports & Markets
Market efficiency: NFL sides/totals > NBA/MLB > niche props/derivatives. Efficient → smaller edges → smaller fraction. Inefficient → bigger edges but lower limits/liquidity—size prudently.
Correlation: Don’t stack outcomes driven by the same factor. Cap event-level risk.
Capacity: Scale to realistic limits; don’t design a plan you can’t execute.
Weekly allocation (example): 50–70% core major markets; 15–30% props; 0–15% futures; 5–15% reserve for live or late news.
5) Drawdown Control & Risk of Ruin
- Max daily exposure: ≤6% of BR at risk across open bets
- Single-event cap: ≤3% per game, including correlated bets
- Stop-loss bands: −10% to −20% → reduce units 25–50%; at −30% → pause and re‑validate edge
ROR intuition: With small edges and fixed units, ROR rises with unit%. Fractional Kelly drives ROR toward zero if inputs are true; mis-estimated p explodes ROR.
6) Line Value > Closing Line Value (CLV) Tracking
- Record your odds vs. close; segment by market (sides/totals vs. props)
- If worse than close in major markets, reduce stake size or rework the model
- Noisy props: pair CLV with outcome EV over 1–2k bet samples
7) Practical Sizing Framework
- Set base unit = 1% of BR (or 0.5% for smoother swings)
- Classify bet by confidence and price
- Adjust for correlation (treat tied bets as one stake)
- Kelly overlay (optional): use fractional Kelly; take min of overlay vs caps
- Round and respect limits; avoid patterns that flag accounts
8) Futures & Long‑Dated Exposure
- Collateralize: cap futures (e.g., ≤10% of BR EV at risk)
- Hedge plan: pre-define partial hedge rules at key probabilities
- Edge decay: revisit as season updates; be willing to cut
9) Handling Fees, Exchanges, and Rebates
- Commission reduces EV—bake into fair odds
- Cashout/early payout costs: model before using as risk control
- Rebates/VIP: treat as alpha, not stake justification
10) Execution Playbook
- Shop lines (3–5 outs minimum)
- Timing: Totals/props often best early; sides in efficient leagues sometimes better late
- Limits: Lead with smaller books, follow with sharper books/exchanges; avoid instant limiters
Record Keeping
Log every bet: market, price, stake, est. p, model version, book. Segment by model version to catch regressions.
11) Psychology & Process
- No limit increases after losses; use scheduled reviews
- Weekly EV/CLV review; monthly drawdown analysis vs plan
- Version control your model: log hash/ID; never mix results across versions
12) Quick Templates
Base Unit (for €10k): Conservative 0.75% = €75; Standard 1.25% = €125; Aggressive 2.5% = €250.
Fractional Kelly overlay: Major markets = min(½ Kelly, 1.0u). Props = min(¼ Kelly, 1.0u, € cap). Longshots ≥4.00 = min(¼ Kelly, 0.5u, € cap).
Event exposure cap: Max 3u total on any single game across correlated bets.
13) Worked Example (Fractional Kelly)
Bankroll €8,000; base unit 1% = €80. Bet: NBA side at 2.10, p = 0.52 → Kelly ≈ 8.36% of BR. ½ Kelly = 4.18% = €334; cap by plan: major market → 1.0u = €80. Stake = €80 (take minimum of caps).
14) When Not to Bet
- Tired, angry, or after alcohol/substances
- After a major life stressor
- When you can’t articulate the edge in 2–3 lines
- When price is worse than your model’s cutoff
- Skipping bad bets is an edge.
15) Responsible Play
Only stake what you can afford to lose. If betting is causing stress or harm, pause and seek help. Age limits and local laws apply (18+ / 21+ by region).
TL;DR:
- Insert a 30–60s STOP routine before every stake.
- Run the 7-point checklist; pass if any “no.”
- Use If-Then rules to auto-block tilt.
- Track CLV & decision quality, not just wins/losses.
- Prewrite a drawdown playbook and stick to it.
Educational content. Not financial advice. Play responsibly.